As it becomes apparent that slow domestic economic growth may be with us in the short term, attention turns to where economic and visitor growth opportunities may exist for 2009-2010 and beyond. This will be critical for forecasting growth opportunities for Orlando travel and tourism with the strong indication that the domestic American economy will be negative to sluggish for at least the remainder of the year.
Although somewhat controversial in its application, national GDP growth is a relative indicator for the health of an underlying macroeconomy. According to EU, OECD and IMF national statistical offices, the following forecasted country growth estimates are applicable for 2009:
- United States – 1.5%
- Canada – 1.2%
- Western and Central Europe – 1.7%
- Mexico – 1.0%
- Brazil 1.0%
- Much of Latin America 0-1+%
- China and India 5-6%
The problem for Orlando travel and tourism growth in 2009 is that the top countries with negative economic growth are the biggest current contributors to Orlando’s baseline level of visitor activity.
Although projections can change at any time, Latin American economic growth should help stimulate the middle classes in those countries with the benefit of higher discretionary incomes and subsequent increased travel.
Moreover, there will be some pockets of growth and opportunity for Florida travel, but not enough to offset those areas that contribute such a significant amount to the local economy and provide needed resort tax revenues.
Orlando Travel
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