posted by orlandovacationhome on Dec 19
In this article we will detail how deep the economic crisis is and might be for Orlando’s largest employer - the short term rental industry. This includes hotels, timeshare rentals and vacation homes alike. We will explain the impact on employment and the need to be fiscally prudent. We will conclude that Orlando is in an economic recession and a technical economic depression is possible, the consequences of which will be far reaching and significant to the local economy.
For November 2008, the Orlando CVB is reporting even bigger drops in metro Orlando’s hotel revenues of 30%+/-(2). This would indicate possible systemic future drops in the Orlando tax collections from the hotel and short term rental industry as a whole.
As a result, much of Orlando’s short term rental industry could be laid off. This is concerning as it is also Orlando’s largest employer(3). As short term rental companies see their gross profit margins plummet they will be forced to reduce their biggest variable cost – labor.
A 20% +/- drop in tax revenues generated by hotels and other short term rentals is a real possibility for 2009, and the implications to the local Orlando economy would be significant.
Projects such as the new $480 million basketball court in downtown Orlando financed in part by hotel tax dollars (5) puts into question the opportunity cost of such a project when thousands of hospitality workers are now losing their jobs(6). The credit crunch has already forced up the cost of the bonds to finance the new Orlando arena as much as $104,000,000 indicating the increased risk of such a project that is now perceived by bond investors.(6.1).
The solution to many of the local fiscal problems are now in the hands of the global economy. As we always explain, no one can predict the future, but the basic math of the immediate problems facing Orlando’s hospitality industry are significant and possibly systemic. If Orlando’s economic GDP drops more than 10% it would be considered by many economists a technical economic depression (7).
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January 8th, 2009 at 9:29 am
[...] article was written in part due to the mass of email we recieved on a previously related article(7). To help conceptualize the implications to the market place, we had the author write this as a follow [...]