The Daily Telegraph, a major newspaper in  in the UK, reported today the UK economy could shrink as much as 10% in 2009 (1). This forecast was not totally dismissed by the Centre for Economics and Business Research also based in the UK who estimated GDP in real terms will decline a more conservative 2.5% (1B) - still a decline of historic proportions.

As we have outlined in a prior post (2), the UK is the largest detached international market feeding the Orlando tourism economy. The impact of a major recession in the UK could wreak havoc on the local short term rental market which includes hotels, vacation homes and timeshare rentals.

The peak travel months for the British to Orlando are June, July and August. The UK is also a big market filler in the early fall when the domestic market for Orlando is relatively slow. Orlando has relied on the British in September to help “fill in the gaps”.

On the bright side, the British and the European Union governments have begun to implement a series of economic stimulus measures on a massive scale (3). The timing and effectiveness of such efforts remains to be seen, but if you live and work in Orlando, the health of the UK economy will most likely effect you.