Let’s be clear, no one can predict the future. If we could, we wouldn’t be writing a blog. This post is  just an opinion. DISCLAIMER. As with any economic opinion, take it with a grain of salt. The authors of this blog are not professionals and do not give out professional advice.

The Orlando vacation house market has been hit hard, especially for many buyers who purchased vacation homes around the years 2005-2006. Prices have dropped in some vacation home subdivisions over 30% from their peak 2 to 3 years ago. For the metro Orlando area as whole, prices appear to have dropped. Click HERE STATISTICS(1).

There are arguments that prices will continue to DROP(2):

Vacation houses are much harder to finance than primary homes, and in the current market even primary homes are now hard to finance (2A).

Foreclosures are piling up. As people struggle with their primary home mortgage, they may give up their second homes.(2B)

There are large inventories (2C).

A few vacation home subdivisions struggle with upkeep of resident exterior areas. Vacation home managment struggles to keep this under aesthetic control for vacationers.(2D)

Banks will begin to compete against each other to sell foreclosed homes, and this could negatively effect vacation home pricing (2E)

Tourists are cutting back big time on Orlando (2F).  Thus, the demand for vacation rentals is also dropping. This means that owners have less income to pay the current mortgage which increases the risk of foreclosure.

In a depressed economy, the last thing people often want to do is buy a vacation home, but the first thing they may want to do is sell if they own one (2G).

Homeowners unable to refinance their vacation homes (they may owe more than the home is now worth) might let the home foreclose if they are unable to modify the loan terms (2G1)

When the world is facing an economic crisis (2I), discretionary items such as vacation homes are no longer in demand. If the USA enters a severe recession, the demand for some vacation home products could dry up.

There are arguments that prices will STABILIZE(3):

It would appear that the rate of price decline in some subdivisions is SLOWING(4) down, but prices are still dropping.

Some subdivisions are making the transition from primarily a short term rental market to subdivisions that cater to full-time owner occupiers as the prices drop, and the vacation homes become affordable relative to regular homes.

The government is reacting on a massive scale to solve the problem(4A).

There are some SIGNS(5) that the number of home sales has been increasing.

In conclusion, vacation homes in the Orlando and Kissimmee area face a unique set of circumstances that has allowed for significant price drops from their peak prices over the last 2 to 3 years. Forecasting the future with absolute certainty is an impossibility.

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As always, please consider the people writing this post/bog to be unprofessional and incompetent at all times. Due to your own due diligence at all times use an Orlando appraisal company, real estate attorney and other professionals accordingly.