In a market where lodging products have become commoditized (little or no differentiation), it is important to understand that there are significant differences between hotels and vacation home communities (see our reviews on the right).

When hotels drop their rates, it typically has a treacherous impact on their profitability. Some credible news sources now claim that as many as 1 in 5 hotels are in some stage of foreclosure. Vacation homes have also seen huge amounts of foreclosures, but such issues can be largely prevented by renting a home from a larger reputable management company.

Bargains now abound in Orlando as the competition for the consumer lodging business grows fierce. However, for the price of a decent hotel room, you can typically rent an entire house with your own private pool. If arriving with a family, it can be much more enjoyable for everyone to have their own bedroom and television as well enjoy large common spaces such as kitchens and living rooms.  This may be contrasted to staying in a cramped hotel room. Many Orlando vacation homes also come with private pools and full garages.

In conclusion, if you are planning on coming to Orlando, consider renting a vacation home from a well established and reputable management company. Consult our unbiased vacation reviews and profiles and details of various vacation resorts in the area.

Orlando Vacation Homes

Concept

This article explains the relationship about and between a hotel’s ADR – Average Daily Rate (1) and GOP – Gross Operating Profit (2). We contend that for a 1% drop in ADR, a typical hotel could see a 3.6%+/- drop in GOP (Gross Operating Profit) based on a typical $70 ADR and 40% GOP margin. This concept is commonly referred to in part as “flow through”. For the purpose of this theory we will contend hotel occupancy (3) is able to remain constant.

We will conclude that if a hotel’s ADR drops 28%, GOP could rapidly approach zero and severely hinder many hotels ability to pay ANY debt service – the consequences of which would be dire in 2009.

We use only theoretical generalizations, but of the five local hoteliers we interviewed, none disagreed with the concept.

Lets do the Math

Thus, using a possibly flawed theory, a 28% drop in hotel ADR could result in a 100% drop in GOP. In effect, this would leave hotels with zero dollars to pay items such as mortgage, taxes and insurance.

The Fed recently dropping interest rates is initially helping those hotels with mortgages tied to the Prime Rate (4), but only to a limited extent. When GOP shrinks to a certain level, there always comes a point when there is not enough to pay the bills.

Even a 14% drop in ADR could cut some hotels GOP by 50%. For many hotels this would be challenging, especially when the Fed has little room to move the Fed Rate any lower.

How some hotels can survive a sustained (i.e. a year long) drop in ADR of 25%-30%  in 2009 is hard to fathom because effectively many hotels would be unable to pay their bills. Banks may have to modify loan terms if they don’t want to become hotel owners. With a zero GOP and a zero mortgage, a hotel could still lose money when having to pay taxes and insurance.

Demand in Orlando is Highly Elastic

In highly competitive and fragmented markets such as Orlando, hotels will begin to quickly compete on rate. This typically will quickly deteriorate GOP. i.e. a $1 drop in ADR comes straight off (100%) a hotel’s bottom line in GOP.

Maintaining a higher rate with lower occupancy tends to be wiser as it allows a reduction in variable costs, thus not effecting GOP as quickly.

Hotels Are a Commodity in Orlando

The problem with Orlando is the hotel room is a commodity and the demand is highly elastic, thus if hotel owners do not respond aggressively in rate they run the risk of a vastly more disproportionate drop in occupancy and a significantly worse GOP.

Luxury Hotels Run Higher GOPs

This can be true, thus the theory would be modified, but one must remember these hotels can have much larger debt service levels and their ADRs (5) appear to be declining the most when compared to their mid-market and economy hotel counter parts.

Conclusion

A 25% to 30% drop in a hotels ADR even while able to maintain a static occupancy could have devastating consequences to the profitability of a hotel. If this is what the Central Florida hotel and short term rental community faces in 2009, the consequences will most likely be dire for the industry and economy as whole.

Disclaimer:

The authors of this blog are incompetent. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making a decision of any kind. DO NOT rely on this blog. Please read our disclaimer(6). This article was written in part due to the mass of email we recieved on a previously related article(7). To help conceptualize the implications to the market place, we had the author write this as a follow up.